That said, City have won the expected goals battle in every match this season. Given the defensive quality of these teams, I’ll be surprised if Sunday’s match proves a barnburner. Just against Arsenal and Liverpool, Chelsea allowed 1.15 expected goals per 90 minutes. They’re fourth in both expected goals against and non-penalty expected goals against. In terms of non-penalty expected goals, the Blues are fifth.Īt the same time, Chelsea’s defense is amongst the best in the Premier League. The Cityzens have surrendered only 8.1 expected goals this season, along with 6.5 post-shot expected goals, per .Ĭhelsea ranks third in expected goals this season, but they’ve received a lot of penalty luck. a +13.4 xGDiff – but they possess a top-class defense. Pep Guardiola’s side has overperformed their underlying metrics this season – +20 goal differential vs. I do lean to the Manchester City Moneyline (-135) but this parlay offers added insurance for the same price. They likely won’t count themselves that lucky again, and I expect a second straight Chelsea win is unlikely. My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.Ĭhelsea arrive at this clash off a huge win, but 4-1 looks a lot worse when you consider Tottenham had two players sent off. Manchester City is a Same Game Parlay: Manchester City Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals (-135).

Manchester City Over/Under is 2.5 Goalsīased on recent trends, the prediction for Chelsea vs.

Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Sunday’s encounter at Stamford Bridge. Most recently, they captured a 6-1 win over Bournemouth after a 3-0 win against Manchester United. Hosts Chelsea earned an eventful 4-1 win against Tottenham on Monday thanks to a Nicholas Jackson hat trick.Īs for City, they’ve won three straight Premier League contests. Manchester City prediction ahead of Sunday’s marquee English Premier League clash.

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